Mercom Capital Group, llc, a
global clean energy communications and consulting firm, is reiterating its global
forecast of 57.4 GW in solar installations for 2015, a growth of about 25-30 percent in 2015 compared to last
deteriorating macro-economic conditions in China and the recent downtrend in
solar stocks, the market is on pace to reach about 57 GW this year,” said Raj
Prabhu, CEO and Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group.
Mercom’s last quarterly update, China released its first half installation
numbers, which showed 7.73 GW of installed PV, much higher than the 3 GW
installed last year during the same time period. About 2.5 to 3 GW of
those projects are estimated to have been carried over from 2014. This is a good sign, as Chinese installations
are forecasted to account for 30 percent of global solar installations in 2015.
However, macro-economic conditions have changed drastically in China over the
past three months even though we have not seen an effect on the solar market
directly. Overall, strong demand has been reported for the second half of this
year giving us confidence that China could install 17 GW this year. However, curtailment
and delayed tariff payments could be a negative factor. Chinese solar
associations, meanwhile, are proposing an increase in national solar
installation goals from 100 GW to 200 GW.
solar market is set to install about 9.5 GW in 2015 and is expected to decline
thereafter. According to the Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA), domestic
solar module shipments in the first quarter (FY 2015) fell sharply by 41
percent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and about 14 percent compared to the same quarter
last year, after the first cut in the feed-in tariff (FiT). Japan has cut its
solar FiT by a total of 15.6 percent in two phases this year. It has also restarted
its first nuclear reactor since the
Fukushima disaster, with other reactors expected to come online.
is forecasting U.S. installations to reach 8.5 GW in 2015. With a strong
pipeline of projects, the U.S. market is headed for a robust 15 months of
installations before the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) drops from 30 percent to
10 percent at the end of 2016. The equity market has been challenging for solar
companies including yieldcos over the past three months and could have some
impact on fundraising in the near future. Most companies are currently evaluating
their business models and planning for a post ITC world. We also expect
consolidation activity to pick up.
Europe, the U.K. solar market is poised to peak this year reaching 3 GW as
solar incentives start to disappear. The U.K. government has announced a drastic
reduction of FiTs by 67-87 percent and is proposing to remove preliminary
accreditation under the FiT scheme, which will make it difficult for the solar
sector to grow after 2015. Germany will only install about 1.3 GW in 2015, a 32
percent decrease over last year, making it one of the worst years for solar
installations in the country.
After a long wait, the solar
market in India is finally taking off. Solar installations have been stuck at
the gigawatt level for the last three years but India will become one of the top five markets for solar this year with
installations forecasted at 2.5 GW. Solar installations as of August
this year have reached approximately 1,400 MW, already the best year so far for
India. Click here for complete India update http://bit.ly/mercomsrto
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Mercom Capital Group
Mercom Capital Group, llc,
is a global communications and consulting firm focused exclusively on clean
energy and financial communications. Mercom’s consulting division advises
cleantech companies on new market entry, custom market intelligence and overall
strategic decision making. Mercom’s consulting division also delivers highly
respected industry market intelligence reports covering Solar Energy, Wind
Energy and Smart Grid. Our reports provide timely industry happenings and ahead-of-the-curve
analysis specifically for C-level decision making. Mercom’s communications
division helps clean energy companies and financial institutions build powerful
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communities and strategic partners. For more information about Mercom Capital
Group, visit: http://www.mercomcapital.com. To
get a copy of Mercom’s popular market intelligence reports, visit: http://mercomcapital.com/market_intelligence.php.