Mercom Capital Group, llc, a
global clean energy communications and consulting firm, forecasts another year
of solar growth with installations expected to reach 64.7 GW in 2016 up from
57.8 GW forecast for 2015.
largest markets in 2016 will again be China, the United States and Japan; the
United States is set to overtake Japan as the second largest solar market behind
China. These three countries will account for about 65 percent of installations
next year” said Raj Prabhu, CEO and Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group.
will continue to be the largest solar market in the world, installing
approximately 19.5 GW in 2016. China has installed almost 10 GW in the first
three quarters this year, well ahead of 3.79 GW installed in the same period
last year. Curtailment and delayed subsidy payments remain a challenge. The
announcement of an additional 5.3 GW installation quota with a completion deadline
of June 2016 for provinces that have met or exceed their installation goals is
likely to help China get close to meeting its installation goals in 2015, and
ensures a strong 2016. The Chinese government is expected to increase its 2020
installation target to 150-200 GW.
is forecasting the United States to install about 13 GW of solar next year
which will be the best year for U.S. solar installations by far. The U.S. solar
market is expected to experience robust growth for the next 13 months as the
industry rushes to complete projects before the 30 percent investment tax
credit (ITC) drops to 10 percent. The industry is hopeful, but not betting, on
a possible extension to 30 percent ITC at 30 percent. The 2016 installation estimates
will need to be revised if solar projects are allowed to “begin construction”
by December 31, 2016 instead of reaching completion, or if there is an
agreement in Congress to extend the ITC in any form.
is expected to install about 9 GW of solar in 2016. The Japanese solar industry
has experienced two feed-in tariff (FiT) cuts in 2015 as the government looks
to trim solar subsidy costs. So far, Japan has approved a little more than 80
GW of solar projects under its FiT program, of which about 25 percent has been
installed. Japan is going through a transformation in the energy sector with a
change in its energy mix going into 2030, giving more weight to renewables and
cutting back on nuclear energy. Japan also is in the process of deregulating
its utilities and breaking up monopolies. Japanese domestic solar module
shipments have dropped the last two quarters following the reduction in FiTs.
European market activity, the U.K. is expected to lead in terms of PV
installations in 2016 followed by Germany and France. There is a lot of
uncertainty surrounding the U.K. PV market with a decision on FiT cuts still
pending and Renewable Energy Credits set to expire in April 2016.
solar installations are expected to reach about 3.6 GW in 2016, significant
growth compared to the 2.1 GW forecasted for 2015. Momentum has picked up after
the government set a target of 100 GW by 2022. Aggressive bidding in its recent
auctions has caused some concerns as to the viability of these projects due to
unrealistically low bids. The latest India update can be found
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Mercom Capital Group
Mercom Capital Group, llc,
is a global communications and consulting firm focused exclusively on clean
energy and financial communications. Mercom’s consulting division advises
cleantech companies on new market entry, custom market intelligence and overall
strategic decision making. Mercom’s consulting division also delivers highly
respected industry market intelligence reports covering Solar Energy, Wind
Energy and Smart Grid. Our reports provide timely industry happenings and
ahead-of-the-curve analysis specifically for C-level decision making. Mercom’s
communications division helps clean energy companies and financial institutions
build powerful relationships with media, analysts, government decision makers,
local communities and strategic partners. For more information about Mercom
Capital Group, visit: http://www.mercomcapital.com. To
get a copy of Mercom’s popular market intelligence reports, visit: http://mercomcapital.com/market_intelligence.php.