Mercom Capital Group, a
global clean energy communications and consulting firm, released its quarterly
market update and revised its Indian solar installation forecast for 2014 to approximately
Major developments in the
Indian solar market over the last three months have been dominated by general
elections, the anti-dumping case and the recent release of draft guidelines for
Phase II, Batch 2 of the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM). Approximately
500 MW of solar have been installed so far this year. Mercom has revised its 2014
forecast slightly - to approximately 900 MW as delays caused by the elections
and uncertainty that surrounded the anti-dumping case have slowed installation
growth. It appears 2014 will be the third consecutive year solar installations will
come in around the 1 GW mark.
The Indian government let
the August 22, 2014 deadline lapse on the proposed imposition of anti-dumping
duties on cells and modules manufactured in China, Taiwan, Malaysia and the
Unites States, indicating that there will be no anti-dumping tariffs placed on
components imported from these nations.
India’s solar industry is
collectively breathing a sigh of relief that a potential disaster has been
averted and projects that were stalled can now restart. However, the drama
surrounding the anti-dumping case, which was entirely avoidable, brought
project development in the country to a standstill with developers essentially
stopping the procurement process due to uncertainty surrounding the case.
The optics were less than
ideal - the Trade and Commerce Ministry, lobbied by manufacturers, pushed for
duties while the Renewable Energy Ministry opposed them, giving the perception
that the government and solar industry are “out of touch” with the daily
suffering of the citizens and businesses dealing with regular power shortages.
“Although the antidumping case
affected short-term outlook on installation growth, the end result was good and
the new NDA administration was able to take decisive action, making a
pragmatic, ‘big picture’ decision that will remove uncertainty and help put the
solar industry back on track for sustainable, long-term growth,” commented Raj
Prabhu, CEO and Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group.
Mercom’s sources revealed that
the government has assured domestic manufacturers a guaranteed market by
providing ‘adequate offtake’ through government programs, which will employ
domestic content requirements, to make up for the antidumping case.
A draft policy guideline for
Phase II, Batch 2 projects was also recently announced. However, the new
administration has assured the market that there will be a more robust ‘revised’
draft in the coming months from the solar-friendly NDA administration.
Indian manufacturers are
exporting more. Almost $270 million (~Rs.1,620 crore) in solar exports were
registered in FY 2013-14, a 152 percent year-over-year growth. Most of the
Indian exports were to the European market taking advantage of the EU-China
trade dispute which set a price band for sale of Chinese modules in Europe.
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Mercom Capital Group
Mercom Capital Group, llc is
a global communications and consulting firm focused exclusively on clean energy
and financial communications. Mercom’s consulting division advises cleantech
companies on new market entry, custom market intelligence and overall strategic
decision making. Mercom’s consulting division also delivers highly respected
industry market intelligence reports covering Solar Energy, Wind Energy and
Smart Grid. Mercom’s reports provide timely industry happenings and
ahead-of-the-curve analysis specifically for C-level decision making. Mercom’s
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analysts, government decision makers, local communities, and strategic
partners. For more information about Mercom Capital Group, visit: http://www.mercomcapital.com. To
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